If you are familiar with NFL history of the past 20 years, you’re probably familiar with the infamous 2005 NFL Draft number one pick decision. If you aren’t here’s a quick rundown.
The 2004 49ers finished the season 2-14 with the worst record in the NFL, clinching the number one overall pick with two more losses than Dolphins and Browns who finished 4-12. This ended the 2-year tenure of Head Coach Dennis Erickson leaving an empty 3 years on his original 5 year deal with the team. Going into the 2005 season with new Head Coach Mike Nolan, the 49ers’ main offseason target and need on their roster was the Quarterback position. In the 2004 season, the 9ers had 3 QB’s make appearances, Tim Rattay, Ken Dorsey, and Cody Pickett. Besides Rattay, who threw as many touchdowns as interceptions (10), the other two threw more interceptions than touchdowns.
Having the first overall pick, they realized the best and most obvious avenue to snag a QB would be right there in the draft. The two guys the 49ers focused on to be their next franchise QB, in a historic franchise that had rostered the likes of Joe Montana and Steve Young, were Alex Smith out of the University of Utah and Aaron Rodgers out of the University of California Berkeley. Many thought that the obvious choice would be Aaron Rodgers considering that he grew up a huge 49ers fan in Chico, Ca and went to college 30 minutes away from the 49ers then home, Candlestick Park. Unfortunately the 49ers went with Smith at number one, letting Rodgers slide to number 24 overall and the Green Bay Packers.
Reflecting on the decision the then Head Coach, Mike Nolan, said that the team decided to go with Smith because he was a safe pick that wouldn’t create drama, whereas Rodgers was “very cocky, very confident, arrogant”.
Looking back at it the obvious right choice would have been Rodgers. Smith was/is mediocre at best, eventually losing his job in 2012 when injured. His backup, Colin Kaepernick, lead the 49ers to the Super Bowl in Smith’s absence. Smith went on to have a couple of okay years on the Chiefs, where he threw screens to the RB’s or dumped it off to Travis Kelce most of the time, and then to the Redskins where he had a gruesome leg injury, he is still recovering from with his career still in question. On the other hand, after being mentored by the great Brett Favre for 3 years, Rodgers became the Packers starter in 2008. Two years later he beat the Steelers in the 2010 Super Bowl in which he won Super Bowl MVP. Along with that, thus far in his career, he has won 2 MVP’s, been selected to 8 Pro Bowls, and has been known as one of the most talented QB’s in the NFL.
But what if the 49ers made the obvious choice in 2005, and grabbed the local Aaron Rodgers with the first overall pick. Alex Smith would not fall long, picked by the Cleveland Browns at 3rd overall. He would be replacing former 49er, Jeff Garcia, and have a poor season with no talent to support him on the roster. He would continue to struggle until 2007 when he was replaced by 1st round pick, Brady Quinn. With no real legacy as a Brown, he would just be another name on the infamous Browns Quarterback Jersey. He would then sign with the Jaguars in 2008, have some average statistical seasons, and play well enough to get an extension. They sneak into the playoffs in 2010 winning the division with 11 wins thanks to a great season by Maurice Jones-Drew. Eventually, he is replaced by rookie Blake Bortles in 2014, midseason. The rest of his career he has Josh McCown Status, bouncing around as a good backup, eventually retiring in 2017.
With Aaron Rodgers not available at 23rd overall, the Packers pass on a QB and stick with Favre. Favre stays with the team, not threatened by a young and promising backup. Thankfully for them, Packers fans never have to see him in Vikings Purple, as he retires for good after the 2010 season. The Packers still win the 2010 Super Bowl, as Farve rides off into the sunset. In 2011 the Packers sign Vince Young to a 2-year deal, and draft similar style player, Colin Kaepernick in the first round. Young is replaced mid season in 2011 by Kaepernick, who is very happy to play for his favorite team as a child. They win the division with 11 wins, but have a quick playoff exit. They win the Super Bowl in 2014 thanks to an explosive offense of Eddie Lacy, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, rookie breakout WR Davante Adams, and the dual threat Kaepernick. Kaepernick has trouble with injuries, and after a bad 2016 season, the Packers draft Mitch Trubisky 2nd Overall. He starts off good, but with aging weapons, declines as they never win the division the rest of the decade, thanks to Matt Nagy’s amazing offence with Patrick Mahomes who they get with the 4th pick, after their first choice in the draft is taken by the Packers.
Finally the 49ers. After 2 seasons Rodgers looks very promising, but is held back by head coach Mike Nolan, who won’t accept his personality and moxy. He was against drafting Rodgers but the front office overruled him to choose the Golden Bears product. He is fired after the 2006 season, and the 49ers hire USC head coach, Pete Carroll. He is also local, and is familiar with the team as the former defensive coordinator. He loves Rodgers play style, and the Carroll-Rodgers tandem is the next great player coach relationship. In 2007 with all pro rookie Patrick Willis, a big season for Frank Gore, breakout rookie WR Jacoby Jones, that the 49ers trade up to get, and a huge season from Rodgers, the 49ers win the division with 12 wins. They go to the Super Bowl but lose to the Patriots. They draft burner DeSean Jackson in 2008 Draft, who Rodgers has instant chemistry with considering they were both Cal Berkley Alums. They also sign Terrell Suggs to pair with Willis. They lose in the divisional round after winning the division. In 2009 they win the Super Bowl, as Rodgers adds another weapon in rookie Michael Crabtree. Off season addition, Brian Dawkins was a key piece in the run. They go on to win the 2012 and 2015 Super Bowls, as Rodgers is known as the best QB in the NFL. They struggle in 2016 as their talent gets old and Patrick Willis retires. In 2017 they have a great draft adding TJ Watt, Joe Mixon, and Chris Godwin. They also sign Calais Campbell and resign DeSean Jackson. In 2017 they have a great season but lose to the electric Falcons in the NFC Championship. The Falcons lose that Super Bowl as Brady gets hurt, but backup Jimmy Garoppolo steps in to win Super Bowl MVP and take the Lombardi Trophy. In 2018 the 49ers draft Courtland Sutton, and redeem the 2007 Super Bowl loss, beating the now Brady-less Patriots lead by Jimmy Garoppolo in the Super Bowl. In 2019 Rodgers gets hurt, and backup Nick Mullens leads the 49ers to a divisional round loss.
To recap:
Alex Smith-NFL Journeyman, 1 Playoff Appearance as a starter.
Packers-Win two Super Bowls and there is no friction between their coach and QB compared to what happened in actuality. Farve rides off into the sunset in 2010 and Kaepernick leads them to a 2014 Super Bowl win.
49ers-Sign Pete Carroll, and committ to excellence with star QB Aaron Rodgers. They win 4 Super Bowls and aren’t finished.
Although the 49ers are now in an amazing position now with their current roster and Jimmy Garoppolo under center, they would have had much more success if they chose Rodgers over Smith in 2005. In the end it won’t matter when the 49ers beat the Packers on Sunday to clinch a Super Bowl birth, but it’s interesting to think what could have been.
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